Key Points From Stephen S. Roach on Dollar Debasement




-During the financial crisis of 2008, the personal savings rate collapsed into negative territory for the first time ever, averaging -1.8% of national income from 3rd quarter 2008 until 2nd quarter 2010, but on June.8th, 2020, in a recent Bloomberg Op-Ed, Mr.Roach predicted that the savings rate could eventually fall by as much as -5% to -10%..Read more 

– Still believes that the greenback is strong at this present moment, but could soon reverse by as much 35%, retesting July 2011 lows.

– Protectionism will result in higher costs as trade is diverted away from China

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-08/a-crash-in-the-dollar-is-coming?sref=X9N3NABa



(June 23, 2020 at 9:38 p.m, MarketWatch)

-In an interview with MarketWatch on June.23rd, he indicated that he believed dollar devaluation could happen much sooner than people might like to believe:

“I do think it’s something that happens sooner rather than later,”

“In a COVID era everything unfolds at warp speed”



Lastly, on Project Syndicate, he reiterated his 35% drop prediction, saying that it could happen within as little as 2-3 years.

“The dollar’s real effective exchange rate fell by 33% between 1970 and 1978, by 33% from 1985 to 1988, and by 28% over the 2002-11 interval











By Shmitra at the English language Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=21843926

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